Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Fare thee well, Ed

This has been pointed out to me at least twice in the comments and I was going to put it the links post yesterday, but this deserves it's own post. In this week's mailbag Ed Eagle, aka Dave Littlefield in disguise, aka The Minister of Truth, aka The Mouth, is leaving Pirates.com for an editorial position with MLB.com that will strangely take him to Toronto. I, for one, will miss his daily doses of propaganda and the way he would slowly ease his readers into stupid things the management was considering (like the way he hinted for months last winter that Humberto Cota and Ryan Doumit were going to split time behind the plate last year). I don't know what we'll do without you, Ed.

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Links

Jeff Sackmann has a Pirates preview up at Beyond the Boxscore. It's worth it to read it all, but to boil it down: What's too bad is that so much young talent--Bay, Duke, Sanchez, and others--is going wasted on what will probably be a 70-win team until they hit free agency.

Webmaster Cory has moved the Roundtable to MVN after some MLBlogs trouble so change your bookmarks. Round 10's questions are posted and the first of them intersects with the long post below.

Commenter and fellow Duke Eric has started up a sports satire site call The Personal Foul, so check it out when you get the chance.

Here's UniWatch's take on the Heinz Ketchup 57th alternate uniforms.

MLB links: Bonds' contract with the Giants is finalized and if he's healthy it's worth a ton of money but if he's indicted the team can release him, the Rockies say the Helton deal is off which means it should be finalized by Friday, Curt Schilling says he'll be pitching in 2008 rather than running against John Kerry for a Senate seat (no kidding), and finally, Sammy Sosa is back where it all started with a minor league deal with the Rangers.

2007 Preview Part 1

Chris Duffy must be a consistent offensive contributor for the Pirates to win.

This is the first part of a running season preview in which I look at things that I think have to happen in order for the Pirates to be a decent baseball team in 2007 and decide how likely I think they are to happen.

Before I get into whether or not Chris Duffy can be a consistent offensive contributor, I think it's important to talk about why the Pirates need him to be one. Simply put, they need to put people on base in front of Adam LaRoche and Jason Bay. Freddy Sanchez will likely do his share, though Jack Wilson likely will not. Duffy is the wild card. He's also the only real speed threat on the team, which isn't a huge deal but it's at least something to think about.

People like to compare Duffy to Tike Redman a lot because they seem to be players of a similar make and they both had scintillating quarter seasons that excited the hell out of Pirate fans at similar ages (25 for Duff and 26 for Redman). Tike, however, is really a pretty unfair comparison to make for Duffy. In his minor league career his numbers were .272/.327/.375 while Duffy's minor league numbers are .301/.372/.420. Simply put, Duff is a better player than Tike and it's unfair to lump them together like lots of people (myself included) do.

Still, most people agree that relying on an OBP based mostly on a high batting average is foolish, especially when we're talking about minor league numbers. I think Duffy's biggest problem is that he strikes out a whole lot for a guy that plays the type of game that he does. In his minor league career, he struck out in about 15% of his plate appearances. Jason Kendall, a player one might reasonably hope that Duffy can be similar to at the plate (the post-2000 thumb injury Kendall, that is), only strikes out about half that often (around 7.5%). Of course, Kendall is a crazy bastard that has been hit by 209 pitches in his career and so his generally good OBP isn't really all that applicable to Duffy. Juan Pierre might be a better model for Duffy. I know Pierre gets ragged on a lot in sabermetric circles (and with the contract given to him, he probably should be), but for at least a couple of years in Florida he was able to be a decent lead-off hitter because of a high batting average which was helped by a low strikeout rate(careerwise he's struck out in about 5% of his plate appearances) and lots of stolen bases. That has to be the model of success if Duffy is going to be valuable to the team next year

So let's look at Duffy. Everyone remembers the end of '05 where he went .341/.385/.429 in 39 games, but that's a very small sample size and an unrealistic goal for Duffy. He then kicked off last year by going .194/.255/.276 and being demoted on May 14th, blamed Jim Tracy and his staff for his struggles, went on a spiritual journey, determined he still loved baseball, destroyed AAA to the tune of .349/.415/.509, and reappeared in Pittsburgh and went .282/.345/.366 from August first through the end of the year. His slugging percentage was pathetically low, but he stole 23 bases in 24 tries in that span which goes a way to alleviate that. The problem is that his strikeout problem was there in both Pittsburgh stints in '06. He struck out almost a quarter of the time in April and May and in August and September he only shaved that number to a strikeout in 19% of his PAs. Because of that, I'd lean towards saying that his late season numbers had at least a little bit of luck involved.

So we eventually have to come to a verdict. I don't think Duffy can put up a full season line any better than the one he did in August and September last year and in fact, I'm probably going to be surprised if he can even manage that. The .345 OBP he had in those months isn't bad for a lead-off hitter, but it's not great either. The problem, I think, is the strikeouts. I don't want to sound like Littlefield and Tracy last year when they were looking for reasons to bench Craig Wilson because I could honestly care less about how many times a player like that strikes out. A guy like Duffy that has to hit for a high average to be useful is different, though. Admittedly, it is entirely possible that I'm way off base in fingering Duffy's strikeouts as the problem for his lack of success in the bigs because he struck out a lot in the minors and was very successful and he struck out a lot at the end of the year last year and was still able to be a decent lead-off hitter. Still, I suspect the Ks have more than a little to do with it. It's at least something to keep an eye on.

UPDATE: I don't think this post is done yet. I want to give myself some more time to think about certain things and work on some other parts of the preview, then hopefully come back to Duffy with a little bit of a different perspective. We shall see.

Monday, January 29, 2007

The 2007 Season Preview

I think it's about time to stop complaining about red uniforms and everything Jack Wilson says and kick into some serious baseball talk. Specifically it's time to start thinking about 2007. Last year I did a post for each player and did predictions, but those turned out poorly, were mostly just guesses, and aren't nearly as good or fun as Charlie's community projections. Accordingly, I'm going to try something different this year. Accordingly, I'm going to do something different this year. I probably will preview the individual players at some point, likely much closer to the season. Until then, I'm going to look at what needs to happen for the Pirates to be good in 2007. It's not very likely that they'll be good, but it does seem to be at least a little more plausible this year than in the past. I'm going to try and look at all of the puzzle pieces that need to fall into place and just how likely those pieces are to end up where they need to be. I am going to do this at least in part to try and keep myself being negative just for the sake of it, which I tend to do from time to time. The things I plan on looking at will include (but probably won't be limited too):

  • Chris Duffy must be a consistent offensive contributor
  • One of the Jose's must step up on offense.
  • We must get 2003-2004 Craig Wilson level performance out of whoever plays right field.
  • Jason Bay must continue to produce at a high level.
  • Freddy Sanchez must do a reasonable impression of his 2006 self.
  • The four pitchers at the top of our rotation must not get hurt.
  • The four pitchers at the top of our rotation must improve considerably on their 2006 seasons.
  • The bullpen must find a way to replace Mike Gonzalez and the Salomon Torres innings we potentially lose with him at closer.
  • Jack Wilson must play well in the field and be a reasonable offensive player (as opposed to the bad one he normally is).
  • Adam LaRoche must adapt to PNC Park and at least approach the power numbers he put up last year.
I realize this is going to be a rather ambitious preview because I'm going to put a considerable amount of thought into each bullet point there, but I think it's something worth trying. Thusly, don't expect a post every day, but I will try to do a couple a week. If you've got suggestions, like other topics you think I should address, leave 'em in the comments and I'll take a look and see if there's anything I find interesting.

Still here

Don't worry guys, the red uniforms haven't sent me into a murderous rage. I'm still here and still writing. I know I haven't posted in two days, but I'm going to kick into a rather extensive season preview starting later this afternoon, as soon as I finish up some work that I have due in a little bit.

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Links

I'm honestly having a hard time getting excited about Piratefest this year. I'm not even planning on going down to the convention center to see it, and it's mostly out of apathy for the team. I think the overwhelming optimism from Jim Tracy and the talking heads on TVs has actually pushed me further in the opposite direction. Anyways, on to some links.

Jim Tracy, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, and Jason Bay talk lineups in the PG today. It's kind of horrifying how often bunting is brought up. If Freddy Sanchez ever bunts anyone over to third base next year... I'm going to stop that thought there before I get in trouble.

This notebook
has Jack Wilson's quote from Savran last night where he rips into Jose Castillo. I know Jack works hard, but come on, people in glass houses...

The former Buried Treasure is now the Pittsburgh Lumber Co. at the newly revamped MVN. The old link should redirect you to the new site, but you may want to update your links accordingly. Cory of the Roundtable and ANPG has joined Randy Linville as a co-author over there.

The Red Sox may be trying to trade for Todd Helton. This comes right on the heels of them (finally) finalizing the JD Drew deal.

Jeff Weaver's contract with the Mariners is for one year and over $8 million. Someone in the comments asked me how much I'd spend for Weaver. The answer is "certainly not that much."

Friday, January 26, 2007

Ugh

If you didn't catch the news tonight, you missed two amusingly awful Pirate bits. The first was Jack Wilson declaring that the lineup now has no weak spots with Adam LaRoche in it. I wonder who has to break the news to Jack that he's not just a weak spot, he's a glaring black hole in the lineup.

Second is the new third or fourth or whatever uniform. Bright red vest, black lettering, black sleeves, gold trim, and bringing back the black cap with the red bill. Calling it "ugly as sin" would be offensive to sin. There's no official pics online yet, but one of Cory's mock-ups is actually dead on. I'm going to go vomit.

UPDATE (7:49): The Pirates website now has a picture of the uniform up, which I've posted below. Now just picture black sleeves under that monster and... I dunno. White pants I hope. If the pants are red I'm probably done as a Pirate fan forever. I can deal with red trim like in the logo. Hell, I use red on the site. But this is ridiculous. Get ready for the Pittsburgh Tomatoes.
ANOTHER UPDATE (9:42)- Thanks to Brian in the comments, ESPN.com now has pictures up from the unveiling this afternoon, so it appears that they've hit the wire. Behold...

Looks like no Weaver

According to the PG it looks like the Pirates are out of the running for Jeff Weaver and may be out of the running for Tony Armas Jr. as well. Baseball Musings passes along a link to 6-4-2, which was at an Angels function where Jered Weaver referred to his brother as "a Mariner." Sounds like a pretty done deal to me.

Meanwhile, I know you're all on the edge of your seat wondering what the red uniforms will look like. They're supposed to be unveiled around 4:30 today at the "season-ticket only" part of Piratefest, but I promise as soon as I find pictures I'll be back with some hard hitting analysis of what could be the most important move of the off-season.

Thursday, January 25, 2007

New Poll

Time for a new poll. Just curious what everyone thinks about next year's win total with the team as it's currently configured. As usual, feel free to discuss in the comments. Last week's results are here. It was by far the biggest poll I've ever had with almost 330 votes. Nearly 90% of those voters either graded the LaRoche trade an A or a B, which I think is probably some kind of record for a DL move. Only 18 of 329 voters gave DL a D or below for the move.

Jeff Weaver?

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Pirates have shown some interest in Jeff Weaver, along with the Cardinals and Mariners (via Bucs Dugout). Rosenthal has become kind of like a national John Perrotto in terms of rumors this off-season, but I've been saying all winter that I think Weaver makes good sense as a Bucco given his history with Tracy and Colborn. Weaver had two pretty decent years in LA with the two of them and is better than most of the rotation tripe we've been looking at this off-season. The question here comes in the price as Weaver is represented by the notorious Scott Boras. Boras has been having the best off-season of anybody, but the market seems to have dropped off recently and Weaver may not end up being as expensive as originally thought.

Mark those calendars

The Pirates have released their "Post All Star Year Blues" promotional calendar and it's packed full of stuff; Dejan has the details. There's five bobbleheads, including one for Bob Walk. How do you know you've got too many bobbleheads on the calendar? When Bob Walk gets one is probably a good answer. There's also going to be more concerts this year. Big & Rich will play a show, Styx (what, couldn't they get Foreigner?), Smashmouth, and the Poverty Neck Hillbillies will play the Sky Blastseses this year (not a me first or a gimme gimme in sight), and an as-yet-unnamed local act (who is almost certainly the Clarks, because that's how things work in Pittsburgh) will play at the end of the season.

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Fun with math

The Cubs apparently had some fun with numbers in signing Cliff Floyd to one of the most variable deals I've seen recently. It's a slow news day when this is the most interesting thing going on.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Now here's something you guys will like

I totally spaced on this when I put up the link list this morning, but (via Mondesi's House) there's a picture of Trenni Kusnierek up for auction on eBay and, well, I can't think of a group of people that would appreciate this more than the readers of this blog.

I fail to see how this helps anything

See, everyone bitches and moans all off-season when people talk about DL signing guys like Trot Nixon, but when he doesn't sign him, we end up with Luis Matos. If I could use one word to Matos it would probably be "megasuck." It's gonna be a trip to watch him, Jose K, and Cota battle for the last couple roster spots. And by a trip, I mean, "I'd rather be tortured."

If you're interested

If you like the stuff that I link to like my Steelers preview, Geeves (of 82) has invited me to join him and Cory (of ANPG and various other places) at the National Sports Review. If you've never checked out the site before, well, they've already done a bunch of posting and they're doing a good job over there. Still, I do have sports opinions that are non-baseball related from time to time and I'm always loathe to put them up here at WHYGAVS because that's not really what WHYGAVS is for. I should be posting there a couple of times a week and so if you're into that kind of thing, I'd recommend that you check it out.

AM Links

Pittsburgh Pirate Roundtable: Celebrity baseball bloggers edition.

It is a happy Tuesday for the Stats Geek has returned! Today he tackles batting order.

Tomo Ohka is out of the Pirates considerations
while Tony Armas Jr. is now in. I told you it was going to get worse.

Ed Eagle posts his Adam LaRoche mailbag and much like Dejan's Q&A, he mentions the incredibly positive response. That must've made it much easier to pick out e-mails to publish that toe the company line.

Monday, January 22, 2007

Typical DL

Turns out there may have been a little more motivating factor behind DL trading for LaRoche. From The Sporting News Inside Dish:

Pirates G.M. Dave Littlefield completed a quest of sorts when he acquired 1B Adam LaRoche from the Braves. Back in 1999, when Littlefield was an assistant G.M. with the Marlins, Florida drafted LaRoche out of a community college in the 42nd round but failed to sign him.
I wonder if DL actually forms new opinions on a players or if he's just working from notes that he made out in like 2002. Not that it's a bad thing to keep after a player you like, but damn, every single guy DL goes after is someone he's tried to get in the past and failed to get (if you missed the stories, he wanted to draft Romak in 2003). It's not that I think that this makes the LaRoche trade a bad trade or anything, it's just that something about DL being unable to trade for anyone that hasn't been on his radar for three years seems disconcerting to me. Perhaps I'm overreacting (hat tip to Jon for the tip).

I think that MLB hates me

Via Deadspin, Major League Baseball has agreed with a gigantic deal with Direct TV to move the MLB Extra Innings package exclusively to the satellite outfit, meaning it won't be available on cable packages anymore. I don't know how many of you that specifically affects (I know there's a lot of MLB.tv users out there), but I'm personally rather disappointed because there's at least a decent chance I'll be living somewhere that I can't get FSP by the end of this summer and, well, I'd at least like the option of being able to watch the Pirates on my TV without having to buy a dish. Oh well, MLB.tv it will have to be for me.

Links

I may have been wrong yesterday, we are ramping up our interest in Tomo Ohka now that Brian Lawrence is a Rockie. DL seems determined to sign a righty this off-season so I suppose I hope it's Ohka because I don't want to see what he scrapes out of the barrel if Ohka goes elsewhere.

Charlie is starting his community projections again, and he's kicking things off with Ronny Paulino.

Chase Utley got rich this weekend.

Dayn Perry ranks the GMs in the big leagues. Littlefield inexplicably fails to finish last, though perhaps he's riding the momentum of the LaRoche trade to what may be an all-time high 27th place finish in a GM poll (via BBTF).

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Lawrence a Rockie

Via the PG, Brian Lawrence has officially signed with the Colorado Rockies. That pretty much locks Chacon in as the 5-man unless we sign Ohka (unlikely) or someone (Youman or Burnett) wows in camp.

Meanwhile, anyone know anything about this Tomlin guy? I guess he's probably not related to Randy. Yeah, I just wanted to mention Randy Tomlin.

Football

With all of the football going on this afternoon, I figure that most of you won't be worried too much about the Buccos. In that case, I'll link to the article I wrote for the Duquesne Duke this week about the Steelers season and their search for a new head coach. My gut feeling says Tomlin, but I have no idea what to make about what's happened the past couple days.

Some we can all agree to dislike

We can argue for months with no end about trading away Brent Lillibridge, the worth of Chris Duffy, and Salomon Torres as a closer. Or we can all agree that this is a bad idea (from today's Hot Stove article in the PG):

The Pirates will unveil a new alternate jersey at PirateFest -- a three-day event that opens Friday at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center -- that will re-introduce red to the color scheme. The team's colors were red and blue until 1948, and red made a comeback in 1997 before being removed two years ago.
Black. Gold. Pittsburgh. I remember reading in the fall in a Perrotto column that there would be a red uniform next year and hoping that it was typical Perrotto BS. Unfortunately, he apparently got one rumor right this winter. I'm already having nightmares. Let's hope it's red trim and not something like this...

Saturday, January 20, 2007

The daily update on all things LaRoche

Well, it's official. Adam LaRoche and Mike Gonzalez passed their physicals and the trade was officially completed yesterday. For all the conspiracy theorists, Ian Snell has replaced Gonzo on the banner at Pirates.com, meaning there's no turning back on this one.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of yesterday was to hear LaRoche say he's actually excited to come to Pittsburgh. I don't know why that should surprise us, though. Everyone wants to go play somewhere that they can be "the man" and that's what he's going to be here. The fact that he and Bobby Cox didn't get along well in Atlanta was no secret and it probably had something to do with his ADD that went unmedicated until mid-season last year (I don't know why some Pirate fans are freaking out when they read that, it wasn't a secret by any means, in fact it was one of the first things mentioned when all this trade talk started). So he's here and he's happy to be here and right now that's about all we can ask for. According to that article, he should be at Piratefest on the first day, when I would assume that things will be buzzing and actually buzzing about the Pirates this year.

Meanwhile, I've seen people all over the internet freak out about the roughly proposed batting order. It's even permeated the incredibly happy Pirates Q&A at the PG recently. The rough line-up the Pirates are talking about using right now is probably the following one.

  1. Duffy
  2. Wilson
  3. Sanchez
  4. LaRoche
  5. Bay
  6. Nady
  7. Paulino
  8. Castillo
I'll admit, I freak out too when I see Jack Wilson batting second and our best hitter batting fifth. And I disagree with the notion that Bay will hit better with runners on in the fifth spot because of there being "less pressure" on him there because there will still be "little protection" for him in that spot. But there's no point in making a big deal about it, because line-up structure traditionally has very little impact on runs scored. I know you probably don't believe me, so I ran two lineups through Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool using the 2006 ZiPS for the Pirates (this time I used Szymborski's build 2 which accounts for player movements through Craig Wilson so they're slightly different than the earlier ones I used). The first lineup I used was identical to the one above except with Bautista in the 8 slot for Castillo. The second lineup I used was as follows:
  1. Sanchez
  2. Bautista
  3. Bay
  4. LaRoche
  5. Nady
  6. Paulino
  7. Duffy
  8. Wilson
The first one was good for 4.596 runs per game, the second 4.630 runs per game. Over 162 games that's a six run difference. Using the old sabermatricians rule of 10 runs roughly equaling a win, the line-up is worth barely over half a win. Sure it's something, but is it something worth huffing and puffing about? I don't think so. The fact is that right now we're only projected to have 3 guys in our starting lineup with an OPS over .800. That's a much bigger problem than batting order. In a horrifying reminder of the past, the line-up tool shuffles the batting order into the best lineups in terms of runs per game. Our top four and six of our top seven have Chris Duffy batting third. I SWEAR TO GOD IF ANYONE TELLS DAVE LITTLEFIELD ABOUT THIS I WILL FIND THEM AND MAKE THEM PAY.

Friday, January 19, 2007

Lumbering outfielder update

Craig Wilson is going to join Mike Gonzalez in Atlanta for 1 year at $2 million. Trot Nixon picked Cleveland for 1 year and $3 million. These both seem like pretty good deals for the respective teams, especially given the market this off-season. This helps put the Randa and Burnitz contracts into terrible, terrible perspective. Hat tip to apk and Steeltown Mike in the comments.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

New poll

This week's poll is up. The topic should be obvious. I would encourage you to discuss your response in the comments, I'm curious what everyone thinks. Last week's results are here.

The day after the deal

There's lots of reasons that it's hard to judge a trade in the immediate aftermath, there's personal bias, there's the fact that no one will play a meaningful baseball game for 2 and 1/2 months, and there's the problem of not knowing everything that went down before the trade did. Still, after lots of thinking, my take on this trade can be boiled down thusly:

It's a good trade for us any way you look at it. We have a huge strength (bullpen) and a huge weakness (lefty bat). We used the strength to fill the weakness. That's a good trade. It's not going to instantly vault us into contention, it's not going to give us a terrifying offense, but it is going to make us better for the next few years. That being said, if DL had the chance to make the exact same trade for Duffy instead of Lillibridge, the trade isn't nearly as good as it could've been. I'm not exactly on the same page as Nate Silver, who's saying Lillibridge is one of the 10 or 15 best prospects in the game, but I haven't seen the guy play so it's hard to say. To be honest, I never could convince myself that Duffy was the type of players the Braves would accept to get the job done (though I do realize it was reported everywhere). If that's the case, then this is a great trade. I'd certainly rather give up Lillibridge than any of the four starters we have in Pittsburgh. This trade doesn't forgive five and a half years of mismanagement by Littlefield, it doesn't make us instant contenders, and it's probably not even a slam dunk as far as trades go. But it is a step in the right direction and I'm as happy with that as just about anything else.

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Doomsday approaches!

Dave Littlefield makes a good trade and the Doomsday Clock almost simultaneously advances two minutes. Coincidence? I think not.

Done deal?

Dejan is reporting that the Pirates and Braves have finally almost completed the LaRoche trade, with the second player from the Bucs currently unknown. There aren't many players out there who could make this into a bad move for the Bucs, but as of right now (5:45) Gonzo is still on the banner at Pirates.com. I unfortunately have to go sit in a room and listen to someone drone on about the history of science for the next three hours, but hopefully we'll know more by the time I come back.

UPDATE (8:01 PM)- Gonzo is still on the banner (apparently the Pirates have discovered our secret!), but there's an article on the main site so this thing is done. Charlie has been all over this thing from the start and he's got a bunch of updates, but it apparently boils down to Mike Gonzalez and Brent Lillibridge for LaRoche and minor league outfielder Jamie Romak. It's kind of a bummer to give up Lillibridge but I'm not really going to complain; middle infielders and relievers are what this organization has in excess and if he's what it took to get this deal done than I'm all for it. Charlie's got a bunch of info on Romak in the post linked above. He appears to be a minor-league outfielder that mashes lefties. He played in the Sally League last year (the same level as Lillibridge) and is two years younger than Brent. He put up a .247/.369/.471 line there last year, which is exciting from the perspective that the guy apparently knows how to draw a walk. He didn't make Sickels' Top 20 Braves prospects, but he is in the "others" section and just because he's not in the Braves top 20 doesn't mean he won't help our system. I'm in shock that I'm saying this, but it looks like Littlefield may have actually played this one right.

Links and things

The Pirates are, as per the usual, not doing anything and it's leaving me with a serious dearth of ideas to post about. I may do another "closer look" type thing this afternoon, but I'm between classes now and don't have the time. Instead I can give you some links to browse over lunchtime, even though they won't really be Pirate-related.

Pittsburgh scores fourth on UniWatch's list of best uniformed cities. Honestly, I think we could be higher. There should be some bonus points for being the only completely uniformed city in America in terms of colors. Plus, LA and San Fran each have at least one awful uniform apiece. I say we campaign for third next year.

Sammy Sosa is working on a deal with the Rangers. Insert George W. Bush joke here. Also, the Rangers aren't interested in Raphael Palmeiro. I just hope DL doesn't find out he's available any time soon.

More arbitration numbers are here. Carlos Zambrano's bid is out of this world. He's going to be incredibly rich next winter on the market. If Zito's worth $18 million a year... I don't want to think about it.

Yet another player
is practically begging DL to bring in a bat. This whole situation has one positive side to it. If DL fails to bring in LaRoche this off-season and we start the way we did last year, he'll probably be fired by May. We can only hope.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

The Arbitration update

Dejan clocks in this afternoon with an update on contracts for the arb. eligible players. Gonzo and Weapon X signed today for $2.35M and $2.14M respectively. That leaves Grabow, Chacon, Sanchez, Gerut, and Castillo all unsigned. The two sides seem pretty close in all the offers, so it's pretty doubtful that a Jack Wilson type situation will erupt anytime soon. Then again, the whole arbitration dispute resulted in Jack having the only good season of his career at the plate. Maybe we should low-ball a few more of these guys.

A one track mind

The LaRoche thing will just not go away. Today Dejan chronicles the attempt of Littlefield to trade Gonzalez straight up for players he's not worth that play on teams with GMs that could think circles around Littlefield. Charlie has an amusing and likely only somewhat fictional account of what the phone conversations between DL and Schuerholz must go like.

I don't really know what to add to this conversation anymore. It seems entirely plausible that the Pirates will steadfastly refuse to give Duffy up to complete the LaRoche deal, then turn around in March and deal him to Chicago for Jacque Jones (link via Buccowire). Maybe I'm reading too much into an after-thought item in the Chicago Tribune on this one, but that sort of thing just has "Dave Littlefield" written allllll over it.

Monday, January 15, 2007

Housekeeping

I'm playing around with some sidebar stuff this afternoon, reorganizing things and such. I've added a "Recent Comments" section because I think it's a pretty helpful thing to have around. I still want the sidebar to be navigable and not too huge. If things look funny or out of place while you're on here this afternoon, give it a couple minutes and it'll probably go back to normal pretty quick.

A closer look at Shane Youman

With the Pirates giving me nothing to talk about, I figured I'd take some time to look at players on the roster that don't get as much attention paid to them as others. I have no idea how many of these I'm going to do or if there's even going to be more than one, but I've only been back at school for a week so that means I don't have much else to do at the moment on this dreary holiday afternoon.

Anyways, I wanted to take a closer look at Shane Youman's career in the Pirates organization today. Youman is kind of a mystifying guy for me. He took a rather slow journey through the minors (he made his debut at almost 27 last year), he's a big guy, but he doesn't throw hard, he walks way too many guys for a finesse pitcher, and yet his minor league record was 33-13. Still, I saw him pitch a bit last year in Pittsburgh and wasn't that impressed at all by him. He finished up his 21 and 2/3 innings in Pittsburgh last year with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, but his peripherals (namely his four walks per nine innings and his two strikeouts per nine) were terrible, granting the small sample size.

We kicked into the off-season and I didn't think much about Youman, but recently something about him has grabbed my eye. That thing is his projections for 2007. ZiPS puts him at a 4.77 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. It's nothing special, but it's certainly acceptable for a fifth starter and it's much better than what they project either Sean Burnett or Shawn Chacon for. Over the weekend The Hardball Times released their Marcel Projections for 2007. They're a bit more unwieldy to navigate than the ZiPS, but if you look here and do a Ctrl+F for his name, you'll find that they have Youman down for a 4.06 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP (though granted, they're projecting his usage as a reliever and not as a starter).

Naturally, this intrigues me. Youman doesn't have nearly enough time in the bigs to garner a Baseball Reference comparable player and he didn't even show up in BP 2006 for a PECOTA comp, while the 2007 edition won't be out for a month for me to check. The strange thing about those projections is that ZiPS projects him to have a rather sad 1.43 K/BB ratio and Marcel is about the same at 1.65. So what is it about Youman? Why is he projecting out as a rather average or maybe even slightly above average pitcher this year? How has he managed such a good record in the minors? The answer surprised me; Shane Youman is actually kind of hard to hit. In his minor league career, he averaged 8.03 H/9 innings. Zach Duke averaged 7.55/9 in his minor league career, Ian Snell averaged an identical 8.03/9, Paul Maholm averaged 8.45/9, and Tom Gorzelanny came in with 7.08/9.

Granted, Youman's minor league K/BB ratio is worse than the other four (and it would be much worse if we take away his first two minor league seasons in which he was actually somewhat of a strikeout pitcher) and because of that his ceiling isn't incredibly high, but Youman might actually be a serviceable back end of the rotation guy for a team that can put a good defense behind him. His successful September in Pittsburgh can at least partially be explained by the Pirates surprisingly good defense in that month (Wilbur Miller looks at the Pirates defense across the whole season here and it's definitely worth a read). I suppose the question is, "When the other options are Chacon and Burnett, why not Youman?"

MLK Day Links

Charlie's got the 2006 Minor League Equivalents for the Pirates whole system at Bucs Dugout, courtesy of Jeff Sackmann. There's some very interesting stuff there.

The Hall of Fame Pirates Roundtable is up with two new questions.

I didn't mention this yesterday, but in the Hot Stove Report about Jim Tracy's unbridled optimism (discussed right below), Dejan confirms that the Pirates haven't offered Tomo Ohka a contract to date.

Here's an account of how the Nuttings' stake in the ownership grew. They kind of replicated like a virus.

Lyle Overbay extended with the Blue Jays for 4 years and $24 million.

Sunday, January 14, 2007

Taking issue with things (things=Jim Tracy's logic)

Jim Tracy is actually painfully optimistic. You want a manager to be optimistic before the season, but Tracy's optimism borders on delusion. Today in the Hot Stove Report Dejan tries to point out to Tracy how bad his offense could be next year, but Tracy will have none of it. Dejan's point is that Tracy and company's assertion that things will get better next year isn't necessarily a given like it is on the other side of the ball, especially given that Freddy Sanchez, Jason Bay, and Ronnie Paulino can't really be expected to be much better at the plate in 2007 than in 2006. Tracy disagrees with this, of course. Let's take a closer look at his "logic."

Freddy Sanchez: He doesn't have to be a batting champ again to be better. If Freddy hit .315 or even .295, would you take that? If he kept finding ways to put the ball in play, kept people moving on the bases and kept playing great defense? I know I would. Being consistent over a long period is part of improving, too.

Emphasis is mine. Let me see if I can understand this logic. Freddy batted .344 last year. As long as he bats .295 next year he's showing consistency. Being consistent is part of improvement. So if Freddy goes, say, .295/.338/.405 (I scaled down all of his hit totals based on a drop from 200 hits to 172 hits, which is what would make his average fall from .344 to .295- it's probably not fair but run with it) instead of .344/.389/.473, we've improved at the plate this year as a team. Brilliant.

Jason Bay: ...he pointed to that .242 average with runners in scoring position, a massive drop from .346 the previous year: "Jason's going to grow in that area. He's going to get better. For anybody to think that this player is a finished product ... that's just not the case."

When the season ended, Charlie noticed something in his season review of Bay that had escaped me during the season. Looking at all of the times during the season when Bay came to the plate with someone on base, he killed the ball whenever someone was on first base and didn't when first base was open, though his OBP was incredibly high with first base open. This trend will continue next year with Xavier Nady and Ryan Doumit batting behind him. Not might continue. Not could continue. Will continue. I'll agree that Bay may not be a finished product (before the season BP ranked their top 30 players on ESPN and under Bay's name mentioned that Canadians tend to peak at a later age than typical US players because they play shorter seasons their whole lives until college, I don't feel like dredging up the link so you'll have to take my word for it), but without protection his average with runners in scoring position isn't changing.

Ronny Paulino: ...he pointed to better power -- he hit only six home runs -- and plenty of room to improve his receiving behind the plate: "Is he capable of more power? Yes. Do I want to see him change his approach and become a dead-pull hitter? No. I just want him to continue to develop, and the power always is the last thing to show up. Defensively ... he's a big man, and he has to improve his footwork. But we'll work hard on that in the spring."

Wait, so he thinks he's capable of more power, but he doesn't want him to try and hit for more power, then he quickly changes the subject and talks about defense. Paulino actually could improve on his season this year even if his batting average drops considerably because he hit for such little power last year and he showed decent power in the minors. I'll just take Tracy's comments to mean, "If Ronny starts swinging like Jose Castillo I'll kill myself." So we kind of agree on one out of three.

Saturday, January 13, 2007

A letter to Bob Nutting from a Pirates fan

After taking control of the Pirates yesterday, Bob Nutting issued a letter to the fans. You probably got it in your e-mail , saw it on Pirates.com, or maybe read it in the Post-Gazette. This is my letter back to him as a Pirate fan. If you agree with what I'm trying to say, I would encourage you to pass this around to anyone you think would enjoy it and write what you think in the comments. I have no noble intentions of toppling the ownership or converting anyone's perceptions on the Pirates, I just think it's only fair that Pirate fans get their say on this whole thing as well. Seeing as how that's exactly what I am before just about anything else, I figure I'll take a crack at it.

Dear Bob,

Glad to see you step forward so we Pirate fans can finally put a face to the figure we all know has been running the team from behind the scenes the past couple of years. That's right, we all know. Ask any knowledgeable Pirate fan and they'll say that you're every bit as responsible for the on-field debacle we're forced to watch as Kevin McClatchy is. I know you've stayed out of the way of the cameras and put Kevin in front, but eventually Toto pulls back the curtain and people figure the truth out. Still, you and McClatchy obviously want this move to symbolize something, so let's let it symbolize something. If you're going to take over as the public face of the team, you deserve to know more about the people that you know have to serve. Not the Board of Directors. The Pirate fans.

I don't know how much you know about Pirate fans, Bob. I read that you "click on the Web" and know what people say, so maybe you do know. Even so, I think it bears repeating. We are kind of angry at this point. In fact, some might even say that we're Irate. But the thing is, I think it's pretty justified. In less than a week, I'm going to turn twenty-two years old. I know that doesn't seem old, but it's old enough. The last time the Pirates won anything significant (a division, a majority of their games, ANYthing), I was seven years old. I was twelve the last time they contended for anything besides the top draft pick. Maybe you don't get what that means. People love their baseball teams, Bob. Maybe that sounds pathetic, but I don't really care. What has possessed me to write obsessively about the Pirates for almost two years? What possesses people to read it? Go to Duquesne or Pitt or Point Park or Robert Morris and walk up to a kid in a Pirate hat and say "Francisco Cabrera" or "Otis Nixon" and see what happens. They'll probably physically recoil in horror. Then say "Andy Van Slyke" or "Doug Drabek" and watch the grin spread uncontrollably across their face. Find my dad or my uncle or anyone their age and ask them about Roberto Clemente or Willie Stargell. Ask them what the 1979 Pirates meant to them and still mean to them. People love the Pirates and that's all there is to it, Bob. The problem is, there's not much to love anymore. In the grand scheme of Major League Baseball, the Pirates just don't matter. Fourteen losing seasons in a row will do that. Trading Craig Wilson for Shawn Chacon or Oliver Perez for Xavier Nady will do that. Signing Chris Stynes, Derek Bell, Raul Mondesi, Jeromy Burnitz, and Joe Randa will do that. The Pirates aren't just bad. We can handle bad. The Pittsburgh Pirates are a punchline. That's what hurts.

Still, I'm a reasonable person and I think I'm a pretty fair guy. In fact, a lot of Pirate fans will read this letter I'm writing and tell me I'm too fair. I read the stuff you say to Dejan Kovacevic in the Post Gazette and I want to believe you. "It's my expectation to win." That's what you said. As a fan, I hope you'll forgive me if I say I have ample reason to think otherwise. Still, there's no way around the statement you've made. It's not open ended like "We Will." It says pretty clearly what you want to do with the team and it's hard for me to argue with that, because I want to see the Pirates win and I should hope that you do too. But you know what? Words don't mean anything anymore. I don't care if you say you want to win or expect to win every day. I want you to show me that you want to win. Fire Dave Littlefield. Talk to any reasonable baseball person and they'll tell you that Littlefield is an awful GM. Guess who's helped turn us into a punchline? Littlefield. If you want to win, I'd suggest you start by firing him. Next up, fire Ed Creech and Brian Graham. You profess to want a strong farm system to operate like Oakland and Minnesota. We don't have that and no one is more responsible for it than Creech and Graham.

While we're at it, it wouldn't hurt to open up the vaults a little. If that's honestly not possible, at least show us where the money is going and why. You say that no one is taking money out of the team and that you don't even pull a salary, but I hope you understand why I say that other Pirate fans and I have very little reason to believe you. We read the articles in Forbes. We know what kind of money this team pulls in. We know, because we're the ones pumping it in there. The amazing thing is this the ownership group that you've been a part of makes people like me feel bad about going to Pirate games. There's nothing I like to do more on a nice summer night than walk down to PNC Park with a couple of friends, sit in the bleachers, maybe grab a beer or two, and watch and talk Pirates for three hours. I've gone to more Pirate games than I can ever count. But when I see the money Major League Baseball pumps into the team every year from the central fund and revenue sharing and I see the profits the Pirates pull in and I don't see that reflected at all in anything, not player development, not international scouting, and certainly not in the on-field product, well, it actually makes me feel bad when I do something that I love doing.

Remember, don't tell me. Show me. I'll be honest; I don't think you can do it. I don't think you really care. I don't want to call you a liar. I know you don't like that because no one likes that. So don't be a liar, Bob. If you expect to win, take the steps necessary to win. You can say all you want that we have an exciting core of young players, but if you know anything about baseball you can't honestly look at the team and believe it. Lots of work needs to be done before this team will amount to anything. As I've said, you, Kevin and the rest of the board of directors clearly want this shift in management to symbolize something or you wouldn't be doing it. The thing is, you are the only one that can make it symbolize something. If you want to start over, I'll be happy to. But you have to show me. And if you don't show me, I can't handle much more losing and I don't think I'm alone on that front. Even the most loyal fans have a breaking point.

Sincerely,
Pat Lackey

Friday, January 12, 2007

Ahhh, the Trib

From the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review on Tuesday, January 9th:

The Pirates are among the two or three teams that have offered a two-year deal to free-agent pitcher Tomo Ohka.
From the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review on Friday, January 11th:
Tomo Ohka's agent said the free-agent pitcher has received four contract offers, but he would not say if one of them is from the Pirates.
Saying that a team has made an offer to someone before consulting their agent is brilliant reporting. Someone get Brian Lawrence on the phone!

Meet the new boss

This is Bob Nutting. He's now the primary owner of the Pirates. Today is the first day I've ever seen a picture of him. I don't like this one bit. Picture from Pirates.com.

The Pittsburgh Pirates 2007 Off-Season Checklist

The following memo was found unattended with no names on it in the Pirates front office today...
(OK, not really)

  • Keep Jim Tracy happy
    • Sign his two stepsons to minor league contracts.
    • Trade for his actual son (Wrong Chad Tracy. Screw it.)
  • Reward everyone who's made this team what it is today.
    • Promote Ed Creech to Senior Director of Scouting.
    • Promote Brian Graham to Senior Director of Player Development.
    • Make Bob Nutting the "owner."
  • Placate Dave Littlefield
    • Just refer to him every time I mention building a winning team. Tell him he can spend money and encourage him to go after guys who will never sign here (see: Suppan, Jeff).
  • Improve the baseball team
    • Remember, 40 men go on the 40 man roster.
      • Romulo!
    • Improve presence in Latin America
      • Use Salomon Torres' incredible baseball academy (screw it, sounds like work).
      • Sign a Cuban defector who hasn't pitched in two years.
      • Put Romulo! on the 40-man roster (see above) and mention him over and over again.
      • Talk about Renee Gayo at every opportunity. Make sure to mention Jhonny Peralta and Willy Taveras. Also, stop referring to Renee as "El Gayo" in office e-mails. This seems to upset him.
    • See point one under "Keep Jim Tracy happy," man were people sad when that Jose K guy left last year (find out what the K stands for).
    • Bring in a fifth starter that can eat innings and is right handed (Note to self: Find out what a labrum is. Find out what a rotator cuff is. See if pitchers need these).
    • Trade for a modern equivalent of Babe Ruth without breaking up the awesome 67 win baseball team we had last year.
    • Do not, under any circumstances, trade the following integral players.
      • Chris Duffy, center fielder and lead-off man extraordinaire!
      • Mike Gonzalez, closer. You can never have enough relievers. Ever.
      • Paul Maholm, starting pitcher. One time I heard someone mention him and Tom Glavine in a sentence. Must be good.
      • Jose Hernandez and Mike Edwards, utility guys. Tracy will kill us.
      • Damaso Marte, reliever. He's so cheap! We can't trade him if he's cheap.
    • Trade the following players:
      • Jose Castillo, second base. Fat and lazy.
      • Wait. That's it. Wouldn't want to mess with success.

More Nuttings

The Pirates have "reshuffled" their upper level management with Kevin McClatchy dropping the title of "Managing General Partner" and Bob Nutting becoming the primary owner of the team (meaning the one that is recognized by baseball). McClatchy will apparently stay on as CEO and still be the guy responsible for baseball moves, from what I understand. They also added another Nutting (Bill) to the Board of Directors. McClatchy and Bob Nutting both promise in the article that this is something that needs to happen for the team to win, but somehow I think that more Nuttings with more power can only be a very bad thing for those of us that would like the see the Pirates win baseball games.

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Bonds fails amphetamine test

Holy cow! Baseball players take amphetamines? Who knew? Barry Bonds is a dick? You've gotta be kidding. Steroids are one thing, but baseball players have been taking greenies forever. Excuse me if I have a hard time working up indignity over this. This is kind of interesting, but only from the perspective that it may complicate negotiations between the Bonds and Giants (which are still on-going with sticking points like Bonds' entourage and his alleged steroid use. For lack of anything else going on, this is going to be the subject of the next WHYGAVS poll. The results of the last one, whether or not DL is going to trade Gonzo, were very very close, though I suspect that if I re-polled everyone on that question starting today, things might come out differently.

Wait a minute...

So we're talking about signing Tomo Ohka and Brian Lawrence, both at least somewhat reclamation projects (I was wrong about Ohka's injury not being serious, he's got a torn rotator cuff that he's elected to rehab instead of having the surgery that Lawrence had) for what I would assume is a considerable sum of money, meanwhile the Blue Jays sign John Thomson for what amounts to $1.5 million if he makes the Opening Day roster (and only $500,000 if he doesn't). I suppose we'll wait and see what kind of contracts DL is offering Ohka and Lawrence, but my gut says it's more than that.

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Sammy Sosa to... Japan?

Deadspin is relaying the news that Sammy Sosa is seriously considering following in the steps of Tuffy Rhodes and heading to Japan to play baseball next year, most likely on account of no one in the US wanting him. Get on the phone, Dave! Big name veteran outfielder that hit homers at one point in his life! Go! Go! Go!

Remember this guy?

Dejan reminds us that Jody Gerut is, in fact, still with the Pirates even though he hasn't, you know, physically run since June. I suppose that means we can count him out of a right field platoon with Xavier Nady. At least Gerut seems to be taking the high road when it comes to his feud with the team last spring over whether or not the worst knee in the Western Hemisphere needed surgery or not, saying I'm professional.

When two sides have their differences and they're defending their rights, sometimes, things happen. I'm here.
At the end of the article, Dejan also mentions that the Pirates have offered a contract to Brian Lawrence and it's believed to be a major league contract even though the terms are unknown. Brian Lawrence everybody! What an exciting off-season.

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Huh?

This is either a typo or the guys at Rotoworld are hammering in how worthless they think Javy Lopez would be as a catcher for the Rockies next year. Personally, I'm voting for the latter.

Ripken and Gwynn

To no one's surprise, Ripken and Gwynn are this year's Baseball Hall of Fame inductees, taking in well more than the necessary vote to get in. Goose Gossage just missed at something like 71.2% and will likely get in sometime in the near future with no shoo-ins coming in future years. Mark McGwire clocked in at about 20-25%, clearly he's got some work to do if he's ever going to have a shot.

Just what you wanted to see

To complete the re-JimTracy-fication of the team, Mike Edwards has been signed to another minor league deal. Edwards is a decent back-up, back-up utility guy to have around, so as long as he starts in Indy and not on the 40-man, I won't bitch too much.

Awhile back the team announced that lieu of mini-camp this year the Pirates are just rotation a bunch of guys through Pittsburgh in the off-season. In the Trib article linked above, they mention that Hererra, Gorzelanny, Jesse Chavez, Rajai Davis, Brian Rogers, Paulino, and Youman are in town with Duke, Maholm, Sharpless, and Torres, none of whom strayed far from Pittsburgh over the winter. The PG article linked below in the Hererra post talks about Gorzelanny and how his arm troubles from last year are no longer and issue. And oh, it mentions that Victor Santos is officially gone now that he's signed with the Reds.

And finally, the Trib article linked above (could I make this any more confusing?) says that the Pirates are one of the couple of teams to make a 2-year offer to Tomo Ohka, though his agent wants three years. Of course, this is a "Trib rumor," so take that for what it's worth.

Hererra

There's a very good article by Dejan in the PG today about Hererra and his journey to leave Cuba and come to the US, specifically Pittsburgh, to pitch. I was most impressed by this part of the article:

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox also showed interest, Herrera said, but he stuck with the Pirates in large part because of Gayo's persistence and because of a visit by general manager Dave Littlefield last summer.
That actually seems like some good GMing. Not that it forgives all the bad GMing he does or anything.

Anyways, like I said, it's a good read about Hererra. He really hasn't pitched in a year and a half, but since he's only 25 it's probably not as big of a deal as it would be if he was, say, Masumi Kuwata's age. Of course, that is assuming he's 25. The main reason I bring that up is that he pitched on the Cuban National Team from 2001-2004, meaning he started when he was about 19. Certainly not impossible, but it is worth noting, I think. Anyways, seeing him pitch is something I'm actually interested in this spring.

Monday, January 08, 2007

Zzzzz

Still no exciting Pirate news to talk about. The new round-table is up, so you can go check that out.

And the Randy Johnson trade/extension is complete.

And there's at least one person who agrees with me on the HOF voting, as this article points out that one voter won't be voting for Ripken, Gwynn, or McGwire (via Baseball Musings). As you know, the results of the voting are announced tomorrow and Ripken and Gwynn are certainly shoo-ins while guys like Rice, Dawson, Blyleven, Gossage will be waiting by their phones again. ESPN had some fun with Diamond Minds running a series of non-HOFers like those mentioned above against some actual Hall of Famers and looking at the results of 1000 seven games series between the teams.

Sunday, January 07, 2007

Links and things

Dejan's Hot Stove Report talks LaRoche and how even the players want to see him in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, he also tells us this,

What are the Pirates' chances of adding LaRoche and his 32 home runs, 90 RBIs and terrific defense?

Under the current circumstances, they appear poor.

The Braves admire Gonzalez, but they showed he is not enough. They seek a leadoff-hitting second baseman, but the Pirates have no such player... The Braves would love a center fielder to replace Andruw Jones someday, but that, too, seems out as the Pirates have little interest in giving up Chris Duffy.

The only answer, it appears, is for the Pirates to trade one of their young starting pitchers: Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm or Tom Gorzelanny. But there again, they have made abundantly clear they have no wish to do so.
So... things aren't looking so good then. I would imagine the Kyle Davies talk we heard was the Pirates attempting to obtain some pitching insurance in the case they had to give up a pitcher for LaRoche, but that deal wouldn't make sense for the Braves at all.

Despite all the Brian Lawrence and Tomo Ohka talk, the pitcher I'd be after would be Jeff Weaver. I know you just choked on whatever you're drinking, but he seemed to turn things around with the Cards last year and has had success with Tracy and Colborn in the past. Of course, Dejan points out in the HSR that he's going to likely be overpaid as a Boras client and Rotoworld seems to agree, suggesting he's going to seek a 3 or 4 year contract and I wouldn't recommend giving him that. Still, if interest in him continues to wane, the Bucs might be able to make a move.

Pirates.com has another Winter Ball feature up, this one focused on Jonah Bayliss and his rather dominant stretch in Venezuela this winter. They catch up with a bunch of other guys too, so check it out.

This fake Dave Littlefield interview (at least I hope it's fake, but who can tell really?) at Only Bucs is hilarious.

Rob McQuown at Baseball Digest Daily takes an interesting look at our young pitchers. That link is from A New Pirates Generation where Cory has been crunching some pitcher numbers this week as well (see here and here).

Saturday, January 06, 2007

This isn't a joke

So I'm making my usual morning persual of Rotoworld and the like sites trying vainly to find Pirates news and what do I come across?

Marlins purchased the contract of outfielder Chad Hermansen from the Sioux Falls Canaries of the American Association.
Yeah, that Chad Hermansen. The now 29-year-old former top prospect hit .317/.400/.579 with 19 homers in 375 at-bats for the Canaries last season. If he still has his legs, he's probably as good of an option in center field as Alex Sanchez or Reggie Abercrombie.
Holy crap... HE LIVES!!! You know this is setting us up for the mid-season headline "Pirates trade Marte, Torres to Marlins to regain former top prospect."

Friday, January 05, 2007

The Hall of Fame question

If there's one topic I've purposely avoided in the past month or so, it's the Mark McGwire Hall of Fame topic. Why have I avoided it? Because in all honesty, it's an incredibly in depth ethical question that most people don't give the thought to it that they should and I get sick of reading half assed columns fired off about why if Mac might've used steroids he shouldn't get into the Hall when we all know too well that these very same people will vote for Barry Bonds in seven years or whenever he becomes eligible. But I'm finally reading some decent and interesting stuff on it (among that is the Bill Simmons article I'll talk about later, some stuff in SI I'll talk about later, and this article by Gwen Knapp in the SF Chronicle sent to me by reader Eric like a month ago which I won't talk about later, but it's a good read and a well reasoned point so you should check it out if you've got the chance anyways), so I'm finally going to give my own two cents worth on it.

The reason it's been so tough to get together a post about this topic is because of how complex the subject is. I think steroid use in baseball, or in any sport for that matter, is wrong. Still, I think that with the way baseball handles things right now, McGwire should probably be in the Hall of Fame. Does that make me a hypocrite? Does that make my statement that steroid usage in sports is wrong meaningless? It probably does. I don't care. You cannot hold Mark McGwire out of the Hall of Fame in January, then recognize Barry Bonds for breaking the all-time home run record in August. And baseball will recognize Bonds, make no mistake about it.

Here's my problem: you can't condemn just McGwire for what an entire era's worth of people did. I'm probably going to get ripped to shreds for saying this, but can you say with absolute 100% certainty that Cal Ripken Jr. didn't use steroids? No, you can't. What about Tony Gwynn? He sure didn't look like a juicer but hey, did Matt Lawton or Juan Rincon? Don't get me wrong, I'm not pointing a finger at Ripken or Gwynn by any means, but if we're going to condemn one guy for some roundabout statements and circumstantial evidence, we've got to condemn the whole era.

The thing that really irks me about the whole thing is that McGwire, the guy who undoubtedly did more for the game than any steroid user in history (Bill Simmons actually has a very good column up about this on Page 2), is going to be the scapegoat for something that hundreds of players did in the 90s and 00s. I say this over and over again, but Barry Bonds is going to be in the Hall of Fame and people are going to claim "his numbers up until 1998 made him Hall worthy anyways." I'm sorry, but that's bullshit. Not that his numbers weren't Hall worthy from '86 to '98, because they were. But to draw an arbitrary line in a player's career and say that no matter what happens after it, they were a Hall of Famer before it is a load of crap. Jim Rice had 12 good years and it hasn't been enough for him and I don't think that it should be. We can't extrapolate out what Bonds would've done from '98 through whenever and just assume that it would've been good enough with those first 12 years to make him a Hall of Famer, it's not even logical to do something like that. Hey, Nomar Garciaparra was awesome until injuries derailed his career, maybe he's a Hall of Famer too. McGwire is the scapegoat now because Caminiti and Canseco weren't good enough to be the scapegoats, and because if he's held out as the example people won't feel bad about themselves when they vote for Bonds because they've already made one pariah from the whole steroid situation.

Another question to ask is, "Why do we care?" Deadspin points out again and again that when Shawne Merriman, arguably the most dominant defensive player in the NFL this year, fails a steroid test no one gives two shits about the whole thing. If you still read SI, there's an article in the Scorecard this week about Shawne Merriman failing a steroid test and still making the Pro Bowl this year. Why do baseball fans care? Simmons points out that baseball players have been cheating for decades and it's ignored in most cases (see: Rogers, Kenny), but somehow this cheating is "bad cheating." One of my all-time favorite baseball story is Dock Ellis and the LSD induced no-hitter (not that LSD made pitching a no hitter easier). Still, there is something about using illegal drugs to enhance a player's performance that just feels dirtier than rubbing vaseline on a ball or putting too much pine tar on your bat. One of the beauties of baseball is that for every Ken Griffey Jr. that was born to play the game, there's a Freddy Sanchez that was born to do anything but play baseball and he's still found a way into the spotlight. The thought of rampant steroid usage in the league ruins that kind of image and I understand why people care about that, because really, I feel the same way.

Baseball also has an egregious double standard for its superstars when it comes to things like this. There is a well researched book dedicated to Bonds' steroid mis-dealings that most people ignore, but McGwire, who without 1998 and 1999 (or we'll say with "normal seasons" in 1998 and 1999) would be a boderline case for the Hall, is being punished for unhelpful testimony during the Congressional hearings, a bottle of Andro in his locker that he admitted was Andro because there was nothing wrong with it being there at the time (it wasn't even illegal), and some chapters in a book by Jose freaking Canseco. Rafael Palmiero, a guy who plenty of people were going to argue against as a Hall of Famer because of his certain lack of, well, we'll call it "Jeter-osity," despite his 500 homers and 3,000 hits, is likely out of Hall consideration forever because of his failed drug test, but if Roger Clemens showed up on the list of players that failed the anonymous tests in 2003 do you honestly believe people would keep him out of the Hall? I don't.

But the real question is what to do about the whole thing. While it's unfair to single out one scapegoat, it's equally unfair to place a blockade on electing players who played the majority of their careers from, say, '85 through '03, to the Hall because it's not right to condemn an innocent player (say a Ripken or a Gwynn) for the sins of others. Most of all, it's impossible to go back into history and decide who was a steroid user and who wasn't when the simple fact is that no one tested for steroids with repercussions until 2004. That means that we can be fairly certain that steroid usage went unchecked close to 20 years in the majors. Are we taking Ken Caminiti's MVP award away? No. And so they can't keep McGwire out of the Hall of Fame, either. Baseball has dug their own grave on this one, now they have to lie in it. No one is going to forget that any of this happened. There are already casualties; Caminiti is dead, Palmiero is probably blackballed from the Hall, Bonds and McGwire will forever be linked to this no matter how many homers Bonds hits, whispers will follow Clemens forever, and every single Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols will be viewed with a cautious eye for the next twenty years. But to punish one player on whom they don't have any more real evidence than they do on anyone else (and they actually have considerably less evidence against than other players) from the era is wrong and it creates a dangerous double standard for the future.

Slow day

So most of Pittsburgh seems to be focused on the whole Bill Cowher leaving thing and there's not really anything Pirate-related happening. Then again, not much has happened on the Pirate front in the past two or three weeks anyways. The biggest news today in the baseball world is the whole Randy Johnson back to the D-Backs trade that's almost finished. Johnson and the D'Backs are discussing an extension for 2008 and have until Sunday to do so and complete the deal. The deal is for reliever Luis Vizcaino and three minor leaguers whom I know little about. I suppose this deal will probably lead to something along the lines of, "Mr. Clemens, it's Mr. Cashman on line 2. He wants to talk about building you a castle."

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Fun with lineup tools

As I like to do at this time of year, I've been playing around with Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool and the ZiPS projections to take a look at the Pirates 2007 offense. As usual, everything is subject to change with a trade or something and I do know that this is incredibly hypothetical stuff we're dealing with here.

The first lineup I looked at is the one I guessed at the other day, Duffy, Wilson, Sanchez, Bay, Nady, Doumit, Castillo, Paulino, and using Duke's 2006 hitting stats for the pitcher. Using the 1998-2002 model, the tool predicts 4.361 runs per game for that lineup, or about 706 runs over162 games. That was the closest I could get to the 680 that the Replacement Level Yankees Blog got using CHONE projections and Diamond Minds, and I think it's pretty close considering that that exact lineup won't play every day and whatever we use off of the bench likely won't match the production, plus there are differences in the projection systems and line-up tools to consider.

Anyways, from there the next logical choice is to plug Jose Bautista in for Jose Castillo. Just putting him into the seven spot raises the runs per game to 4.461, or about 723 over the course of the season. A twenty run difference over the course of the season is pretty significant. If we put Bautista in center and at lead-off for Duffy and leave Castillo at second, the number is 4.378. Think about that; batting order (which is actually a pretty small factor in runs scored) aside, Jose Castillo is being projected to be a worse offensive player than Chris Duffy next year. If Castillo is going to have a Freddy Sanchez type season next year where he smashes the projections, he should play. The problem is that I don't see any reason to think that would happen. Even with his VWL numbers, it's best the Pirates keep him on a short leash this year.

So where to next? It's not something we're going to see next year, but seeing Brent Lillibridge jump so high on John Sickle's list earlier this week intrigued me and because the ZiPS projections are Major League level predictions, I decided to plug Lillibridge's ZiPS in for Jack Wilson's. Amazingly, the runs per game jumps to 4.504 (730/162 games). So if the ZiPS are accurate, Jack Wilson is worth someting like 7 runs per 162 games less than a guy that hasn't played above the A level yet. I'm not recommending vaulting Lillibridge over AA and AAA to play this year because that would be stupid, but I suppose this is a little more reason to keep a closer eye on him this year and more evidence that Jack Wilson isn't as valuable as this team makes him out to be.

So now let's have some fun. We'll keep Wilson in the line-up because as I've said before, there's no way Lillibridge will see much (if any) action in Pittsburgh this year. So let's re-arrange the line-up a bit and plug Adam LaRoche into it (the 2007 Braves ZiPS are here). Our lineup will be Bautista, Sanchez, Bay, LaRoche, Nady/Doumit, Paulino, Duffy, Wilson. It's hard to quantify Nady and Doumit's numbers because as platoon players you'd hope their numbers will be a little higher hitting against only pitching they're more comfortable with. We'll play it safe and use Nady's projections for the spot (the higher of the two). The number per game we get there is 4.644, approximately 752 runs over the course of 162 games. If you assume that Duffy will be traded as well as Gonzo, we can put Castillo back into the line-up (presuming a Bautista move to center), but the number per game is still 4.609.

Finally, we'll toss Melky Cabrera into the mix (Yankees ZiPS here). We'll put him at leadoff and bump Bautista, Sanchez, and Bay down a slot from the LaRoche line-up. Melky's lineup gives us 4.569 runs per game (740/162). Given that he's 22, I think that's an acceptable option if LaRoche is too expensive.

I know this isn't a perfect way to do things. I know that projections aren't set in stone because they're just that, projections. I know this doesn't take into account a lot of factors like injuries, off days, etc. and that Cabrera and LaRoche's ZiPS are for them in the Yankees and Braves line-ups, respectively. I've only included the runs per 162 games number to give a rough idea of how much one player can impact the line-up over the course of the season. Because of all of the previous factors mentioned I don't think it's an accurate number of how many runs the Pirates will score this year. Still, the point is that adding just one player into the line-up can have a big effect on things. It might even have a bigger effect than what I accounted for because by making Doumit and Nady platoon players; their numbers should be a little better than what they're projected for. This is just another way of showing what everyone's been saying for a long time now; standing pat is not going to make this team better but there are moves available that will.

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Projecting

The Replacement Level Yankees Blog has taking the Chone projections and plugged them into the Diamond Mind Simulator 100 times to take a very early (very early because there's still lots of free agents out there) look at the divisions (via Baseball Musings). Because it's so early it's hard to take much to heart from these predictions, but what I found interesting is that with the currently configured line-up, the Pirates are projected to score only 680 runs, 17 less than the next worst offense (the Royals, who are the only team within a light-year of 680) and 11 less than last year's 691 (which was second to last in the league, ahead of the Cubs by two runs and the Cubs have obviously addressed their offensive problems). The pitching staff that Diamond Minds predicts is pretty decent, 734 runs against is actually fifth in the National League, but with the offense it's only good enough for 74 wins. It's just more of the same. Minus the Reggie Sanders/Kenny Lofton/Matt Stairs year (2003) the Bucs scored 680 in 2005, 680 in 2004 (no kidding), and 641 in 2002 (you can go here and play around with the years if you're interested in verification of those numbers). It's really just a verification of what I said yesterday; no matter what Tracy and Littlefield want to believe about the second half last year, this team is not going to "mature" into a winning baseball team on its own. Standing pat isn't going to do any thing but doom us to more mediocrity.

Brian Lawrence?

Dejan's notebook today reports that the Pirates are among the finalists for former Padre pitcher Brian Lawrence. Lawrence was a pretty decent starter when healthy for San Diego, but he's coming off of surgery to fix his labrum and rotator cuff. That's some serious stuff right there. I realize that if we sign him it will most likely be to challenge Chacon for the fifth rotation spot, but I don't understand why we'd go straight to Lawrence when a similar and healthier pitcher is still on the market in Tomo Ohka (Ohka and Lawrence are each other's top similarity matches on Baseball Reference). We haven't spent any more this off-season, who cares if the Mets are bidding on Ohka? Spend some money, get a player that you know will help the team instead of one that might. Ugh.